Verification Data and Scheme
- Assessed for hurricanes Gustav (2008) and Ike (2008).
- Assessed for all forecast advisories and all cities/towns/places where the NHC issued a forecast wind probability of at least 1%.
- Assessed separately for the likelihood of hurricane Cat 1 and above winds (1566 individual verifications) and for tropical storm strength and above winds (2360 individual verifications).
- TSR accuracy compared to NHC accuracy.
- Assessed at 6 hourly leads out to 120 hours before hurricane passage.
- Accuracy metric used is the Mean Absolute Probability Error (with the observed probability either 0% or 100%).
Please click the thumbnails below to see how the TSR and NHC accuracies compare.
The TSR wind probabilities are more accurate than the NHC wind probabilities. This is true both for hurricane Cat 1 and above winds and for tropical storm strength and above winds.
Additionally the TSR wind probabilities are available in a range of polygon formats and for tropical storms worldwide.